“Pot Odds!”. I hear someone say this every time I’m at the poker table, but very few people are clear on when exactly they have pot odds. Pot odds are defined as “the odds you get when analyzing the current size of the pot vs. your next call”. I’d like to clear up a few misconceptions about pot odds, and let everyone know when the odds are in your favour and when they’re not.
Scenario #1 – Flush Draw
You have 2 pocket cards that are suited and flop four to the flush. Therefore there are 9 cards left in the deck that will make your hand. There are 47 other cards besides the 2 in your hand and the three on the flop, so you have a 9/47 or 19% chance that the next card will be your suit. This means that it is only worth calling a bet approximately 1/5 the total of the pot in order to catch a flush on the turn. For instance if the pot is $100 it is only worth calling a bet of around $20 or less to try to make your flush.
Scenario #2 – Open-ended Straight Draw
You might have a hand like 10-J and the flop comes Q, 9, 5. You’ve just flopped an open ended straight draw. You can catch any 8 or any K to make your hand. Therefore you’ve got 8 outs with 47 cards remaining. This means you have an 8/47 or a 17% chance of turning a straight. Similar to the flush draw situation above you should only call a bet that is, at most, this percent of the pot (ie. $17 into a $100 pot).
Scenario #3 – Gutshot Straight Draw
There is rarely a bet small enough to call for a gutshot draw. On this type of draw you have only 4 outs in the deck, and therefore a 4/47 or 8.5% chance of making your straight on the next card. Unless someone bets less than $8 into that pot of $100 its not worth your money. But if someone is betting only $8 into a $100 pot perhaps they deserve to lose, so by all means call for your ugly draw.
Other Odds
Chance of your pocket pair making a set on the flop = 1 in 9
Chance of being dealt pocket aces = 1 in 220
Chance of a Royal Flush appearing on the board = 1 in 77,968,800
Calculating Outs
courtesy of texasholdem-poker.com |
